The English Premier League title race was over before it started but least the relegation battle should offer us some excitement in the coming weeks. The Guardian examines which clubs are likely to go on relegation.
If you want some drama from your league football this spring, go to Spain, where Barcelona and Real Madrid look likely to be competing for the title until the last day, or turn your attention to the Veikkausliiga in Finland, which has turned the humdrum business of ranking football teams into
https://twitter.com/campbellwpaul/status/595317812714930176 — (@campbellwpaul) December 6, 2017
">an art form
Aston Villa, 14th, 35 points
Remaining fixtures Aston Villa v West Ham, 9 May Southampton v Aston Villa, 16 May Aston Villa v Burnley, 24 May
Last five results Aston Villa 3-2 Everton Manchester City 3-2 Aston Villa Tottenham Hotspur 0-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3-3 QPR Manchester United 3-1 Aston Villa
Will they stay up? Most probably. Tim Sherwood’s team are scoring goals home and away, they have a habit of pulling off unlikely victories – as they showed on their run to the FA Cup final – and their three remaining fixtures are winnable. Burnley could be relegated by the time they visit Villa Park on the last day of the season and Southampton’s away record has been poor in recent weeks. Villa might not go into the FA Cup final on a wave of euphoria but expect three other clubs to finish below them.
Newcastle United, 15th, 35 points
Remaining fixtures Newcastle v West Brom, 9 May QPR v Newcastle, 16 May Newcastle v West Ham 24 May
Last five results Leicester 3-0 Newcastle Newcastle 2-3 Swansea City Newcastle 1-3 Tottenham Hotspur Liverpool 2-0 Newcastle Sunderland 1-0 Newcastle
Will they stay up? It’s 50-50. The fans hate the owner, the manager has turned on his players and the team have lost their last eight league games, but they might just have secured enough points to survive. It seemed unfathomable at the turn of the year but, if Newcastle are still in the Premier League next season, they will owe a debt of thanks to Alan Pardew, who was cheered out of the club at the start of January while they sat in 10th place.
They collected 27 points in 20 matches under Pardew and a relegation battle did not look likely, but John Carver’s reign has been an utter shambles: the caretaker manager has produced 11 defeats, two draws a grand total of two victories from his 15 games in charge. That’s a win percentage of 13%. It’s not all Carver’s fault, of course. Newcastle’s business model necessarily requires them to sit in the lower half of the Premier League, but Carver cannot absolve himself completely from the run of defeats that have occurred under his watch.
With matches against QPR, who have won two away matches all season, and West Ham, who have little left to play for, Newcastle should be able to gather enough points. But their survival is likely to rest on the ineptitude of others rather than their own fighting spirit.
Leicester City, 16th, 34 points
Remaining fixtures Leicester v Southampton, 9 May Sunderland v Leicester, 16 May Leicester v QPR, 24 May
Last five results Leicester 3-0 Newcastle Leicester 1-3 Chelsea Burnley 0-1 Leicester Leicester 2-0 Swansea West Brom 2-3 Leicester
Will they stay up? With five wins in their last six matches, it looks increasingly likely. Leicester’s recent renaissance has been staggering: 44% of the points they have picked up this season have been won since the start of April.
Nigel Pearson has enjoyed a remarked few weeks. Isn’t he fun? Pearson seems to be conducting his own private experiment on the importance of press conferences. We all imagine that things said before and after matches matter, but Pearson is tearing that logic apart. The more ridiculous he sounds, the better his team perform.
His bizarre line about ostriches had the press scrambling around for old videos of Kevin Keegan and Joe Kinnear, but his players were clearly unmoved. Pat Murphy of the BBC might not approve of Pearson’s style – he turned up to Leicester with the pompous tone of a haughty schoolmaster to tell him that he “had made a fool of himself”, “was in danger of being seen as a paranoid bully” and might consider taking anger management classes. Pearson laughed him off, safe in the knowledge that his team are winning football matches. At least it gave us something to talk about while Chelsea were winning all of their matches on snooze mode.
Not everyone appreciates Pearson’s robust way with words but, if his team stand behind him and keep performing so brilliantly, he will be receiving an improved contract rather than anger management classes.
Hull City, 17th, 34 points
Remaining fixtures Hull v Burnley, 9 May Tottenham Hotspur v Hull, 16 May Hull v Manchester United, 24 May
Last five results Hull 1-3 Arsenal Hull 1-0 Liverpool Crystal Palace 0-2 Hull Southampton 2-0 Hull Swansea 3-1 Hull
Will they stay up? Ask that question again at 5pm on Saturday. It’s difficult to overstate the importance of Hull’s match against Burnley this weekend. If they lose, they could dip into the relegation zone for the first time since January, and will have to clamber out with points earned against Tottenham and Manchester United, but if they win they will relegate Burnley and could go up to 14th, leapfrogging Leicester, Newcastle and Aston Villa.
Sunderland, 18th, 33 points
Remaining fixtures Everton v Sunderland, 9 May Sunderland v Leicester, 16 May Arsenal v Sunderland, 20 May Chelsea v Sunderland, 24 May
Last five results Sunderland 2-1 Southampton Stoke 1-1 Sunderland Sunderland 1-4 Crystal Palace Sunderland 1-0 Newcastle West Ham 1-0 Sunderland
Will they stay up? Sunderland have a game in hand on their fellow strugglers but it’s at the Emirates in the last week of the season, four days before they visit Stamford Bridge on the final day. They have a decent record against Chelsea – they held them to a goalless draw earlier this season after becoming the first team to beat José Mourinho in a league match at Stamford Bridge last April – but they need to go into the final week of the season with something to hold on to.
Dick Advocaat has not been relegated in his career and seems to be enjoying life in the north-east. Speaking after Sunderland’s victory over Southampton on Saturday, he said he was having a “great time” in the Premier League. When asked if his team would stay up, he said be believed “100% … but I have to say that”. If Sunderland can win their only remaining home game – against Leicester next weekend – he will probably earn a new contract and a chance to rebuild over the summer.
QPR, 19th, 27 points
Remaining fixtures Manchester City v QPR, 10 May QPR v Newcastle, 16 May Leicester v QPR, 24 May
Last five results Liverpool 2-1 QPR QPR 0-0 West Ham QPR 0-1 Chelsea Aston Villa 3-3 QPR West Brom 1-4 QPR
Will they stay up? No. Even if they win their remaining matches they could still go down, and there is next to no chance that QPR will win their final three games. They haven’t won two consecutive matches all season and didn’t win an away game until February. If QPR are to stay up, they will have win at the Etihad on Sunday; the last time they beat Manchester City away in the league the game was played at Maine Road and Tony Blair was the Prime Minister.
Chris Ramsey is a likeable manager and will reportedly be given another year at the club to earn promotion from the Championship. He will need to sort out that defence. They have conceded 61 goals in 35 matches so far this season. That’s relegation form by anyone’s counting. At least Harry Redknapp if available if things don’t work out with Ramsey.
Burnley, 20th, 26 points
Remaining fixtures Hull v Burnley, 9 May Burnley v Stoke, 16 May Aston Villa v Burnley, 24 May
Last five results West Ham 1-0 Burnley Burnley 0-1 Leicester City Everton 1-0 Burnley Burnley 0-1 Arsenal Burnley 0-0 Tottenham Hotspur
Will they stay up? No. Their last goal came in a 1-0 defeat of Manchester City, which sounds impressive, but that game took place in the middle of March. To have any hope of staying up they need to win their three remaining fixtures and pray for an unlikely series of results elsewhere.
Sean Dyche seems like a good man and his team have battled with honest endeavour but they have not scored enough goals. Just look at their recent results: they have lost their last four games 1-0. The maths is not yet conclusive, but the game is up for Burnley.
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