Harry Kane is the overwhelming bookmakers’ favourite to succeed Ousmane Dembele as Ballon d’Or France Football winner, with the 2026 award set to be presented in London on Monday, 26 October.
The England captain’s odds have shortened to 1.35, having stood at 1.5 in September, after a campaign combining outstanding individual numbers, major team honours and exemplary conduct – the three key criteria for the award.
Kane scored 36 goals in 31 Bundesliga appearances to finish as the division’s leading scorer, while his 14 goals in 13 UEFA Champions League matches made him the competition’s second-highest scorer. He also found the net seven times in eight World Cup games.
Those performances helped England reach third place at the World Cup, while Bayern Munich reached the Champions League semi-finals and secured the domestic league and German Cup double. Kane did not receive a red card and was regarded as discreet and exemplary both on and off the pitch.
Yamal and Mbappe among the leading challengers
Lamine Yamal is the second favourite, with his odds improving from 5 in September to 3.3. The 19-year-old Spain international has already become a world champion and also won the Spanish league in 2025-26.
A World Cup triumph carries particular weight in a Ballon d’Or year. Since the beginning of the 21st century, only Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo have won the award in a World Cup year without reaching at least that tournament’s final.
Yamal’s season was not always as consistent as the expectations surrounding his talent, but he still scored 16 La Liga goals and supplied 11 assists. In 10 Champions League appearances, he added six goals and four assists.
Kylian Mbappe, meanwhile, is considered the leading candidate on individual output but has no collective trophy to support his case. He was the top scorer in La Liga, the Champions League and the World Cup, with 25, 15 and 10 goals respectively.
Mbappe also overtook Miroslav Klose and then Lionel Messi to become the leading scorer in World Cup history, with 22 goals in 22 matches. However, his odds have drifted from 6 a month and a half ago to 17.
Rodri, the 2024 winner, is fourth in the bookmakers’ estimation at 50. His strong World Cup helped Spain to the title, but his club season with Manchester City was disrupted by injuries. He played in 21 of their 38 league matches and five Champions League games, with the FA Cup their only trophy.
Lionel Messi’s odds have improved from 29 in mid-September to 20 after another outstanding World Cup, in which he scored eight goals and provided four assists in eight matches as his team reached the final. He also produced 35 goals and 24 assists in 33 appearances for Inter Miami during the 2025 Major League Soccer season.
However, Major League Soccer carries less weight in the global game, and no player has won the Ballon d’Or France Football for a season played outside Europe.
Top five odds: Harry Kane 1.35; Lamine Yamal 3.3; Kylian Mbappe 17; Lionel Messi 20; Rodri 50. Odds may change.