By Ed Dove
Will it be the Lions of Teranga, rather than Algeria or Ghana, who cause South Africa the most trouble at the 2015 Cup of Nations?
As soon as Senegal secured their qualification for the 2015 Afcon, I tipped them as my dark horses for the tournament.
Over the last few weeks, I have doubted whether the West Africans will escape from the 'Group of Death', but as the eve of the competition approaches, I remain confident that the Teranga Lions could be the Cup of Nations’ surprise package.
Let’s begin with a definition of terms.
I believe it’s important to differentiate between dark horses and outsiders.
Outsiders are those teams who have little to no chance of winning a tournament.
When Greece won the 2004 European Championships, for example, they were rank outsiders, with arguably only one team (Latvia) who were bigger underdogs heading into the competition.
I would argue as well that Zambia were underdogs when they won the title in 2012, particularly considering they only took one point from two games against Libya during qualification.
Dark horses are sides that are not among the genuine favourites for a competition, but who have enough quality to be given a better chance of victory than the outsiders.
Ghanaian writer Nii Ayitey Tetteh described them, quite candidly, as “teams with potential to win the tournament [sic] though you wouldn’t exactly tag them [as] favourites.” That sums it up nicely.
I think a culture of victory can be a decisive factor in judging whether a team is a favourite or an outsider.
For many years, the Czech Republic and a golden collection of players containing the likes of Pavel Nedved, Petr Cech, Karel Poborsky, Vladimir Smicer, Tomas Rosicky and Marek Jankulovski were the perennial dark horses of European and world soccer. Despite having some excellent players, the team had no collective culture of victory and thus were never considered among the genuine favourites for the tournaments they entered. They had also missed out on France ’98 and the 2002 World Cup.
It was a similar story for Belgium this summer. Man for man, the Red Devils boasted one of the best squads in the competition, yet they were given the dark horses tag by, among others, the Daily Mail, the Week, Bleacher Report and the Telegraph.
Why? Well, despite the presence of Thibaut Courtois, Eden Hazard, Vincent Kompany, Axel Witsel etc., they had no collective culture of success comparative to their opponents and had also been long-term absentees from the international high table.
Senegal, the 2015 Afcon dark horses, have several parallels with these two teams, but particularly Belgium.
Like the Red Devils, there is a crucial disconnect between Senegal’s myriad of options and their recent tournament performances.
This group has no collective success they can look back on.
First of all, Senegal have had an exceptionally patchy record of even qualifying for tournaments since the glorious showings under the late Bruno Metsu.
Regarding World Cups, they missed out on the 2006, 2010 and 2014 editions, coming in stark contrast to the likes of Nigeria, Cote d’Ivoire and Cameroon who have each made three of the last four tournaments.
Similarly, with regards to Cup of Nations tournaments, Senegal failed to qualify for both the 2010 and 2013 editions, and were dumped out in the first round in both 2008 and 2012.
Put simply, they haven’t progressed to the knock-out stages of the tournament since 2006.
More tellingly, perhaps, their record in international competitions has been fairly dismal since that wonderful run to the World Cup semi-final.
Since 2002, Senegal have only won against three different nations at a major tournament: Zimbabwe, Kenya and Guinea… hardly names to provide a glowing commendation of any culture of victory.
Historically, it’s a similar story.
The Lions of Teranga haven’t won a match at a major competition for nine years.
The Afcon favourites can all look back upon histories boasting regular participation in the latter stages of the competition.
Consider this, Ghana, Cameroon, Algeria and the Cote d’Ivoire have featured 12, eight, six and nine times respectively in the semi-finals… Senegal have only made one final and have finished in fourth place on a further three occasions.
Having demonstrated why I don’t believe that Senegal ought to be considered among the tournament favourites, I wish to outline why they still possess enough about them to be contenders for the Afcon crown.
The West Africans’ attack has received much attention pre-tournament, and indeed, in Papiss Demba Cisse, Sadio Mane, Dame Ndoye, Moussa Sow and Mame Biram Diouf, they possess a better roster of forwards than almost any other team in the tournament, menacing enough not to worry too much about Diafra Sakho or Demba Ba.
However, I believe the defence is arguably an even greater area of strength.
Despite being without captain Lamine Sane for their last four qualifiers, Alain Giresse’s side still managed to keep the joint-best defensive record in qualification, conceding only one goal.
As long as concentration is flawless, the other three teams in Group C may struggle to breach the Senegalese defence.
An ability to both keep things tight at the back and to launch forward with an array of devastating options might mean that the West Africans are well-suited to playing against tougher, more confident, expressive sides.
They could thrive in the knock-out stages.
Looking at the side during the qualifiers, I identified two key problems: first of all, the absence of a true right-back or a right wing-back, and secondly, the lack of a creative presence in the centre of the park.
The loss of Mohamed Diame through injury and Mane’s fitness worries further contribute to the second concern.
In naming his final squad, Giresse has handed a recall to Lamine Gassama and given Henri Saivet — a long-term injury absentee — the chance to prove his fitness.
Gassama, who appeared to lose the manager’s faith following a dismal showing against the Cote d’Ivoire in 2013, can provide balance to the defence and also offers some attacking threat with forward forays.
Saivet could be the missing link between the midfield and attack and, from his own position on the flank or behind the striker, will look to feed Senegal’s arsenal of offensive talents.
A dismal recent record in major competitions, a lack of collective success and one or two key structural problems with the team mean that Senegal cannot be considered among the favourites for the Cup of Nations.
They are dark horses, however, without a shadow of a doubt.