Premier League stats: Have we finally got a real Premier League title race?

Published on: 10 December 2018

Mohamed Salah netted his second Liverpool hat-trick at Bournemouth on Satruday and is now the Premier League's joint-top scorer

After Manchester City were beaten by Chelsea on Saturday, Pep Guardiola was asked if Liverpool could win the title.

His answer? Yes. Yes they can.

Here, the title race is assessed, Unai Emery's half-time tinkering is dissected and Fulham's leaky defence is exposed as BBC Sport takes a look at the key stats from the Premier League weekend...

Is the title race really on?

"We are in December, if you ask if Liverpool can win the Premier League, I would say 'yes'."

That was Manchester City boss Guardiola's emphatic response when questioned after his team's defeat at Chelsea on Saturday.

And he would be correct - because the numbers show it is as tight as it has been in eight years at this time of the season.

Leaders Liverpool and second-placed City are separated by just a point - the closest the top two have been at this stage since 2010-11, when Manchester United trailed Arsenal by the same margin.

After 16 games last season, City were well on their way to winning the title, sitting 11 points clear at the top of the Premier League table, 16 points ahead of Liverpool in fourth.

The Reds have only been top of the Premier League after 16 games once before - more than 20 years ago, in 1996-97.

And this is their best record after 16 matches of a top-flight campaign - better than in every one of their 18 title-winning seasons.

Liverpool's best performances after 16 games of a top-flight season

Season Games Points Final position

All seasons calculated with three points for a win, which was introduced in 1981-82

2018-19 16 42 -

1990-91 16 41 2

1987-88 16 40 1

1978-79 16 39 1

But what about the remaining 22 games? If Liverpool can maintain their form, they could claim their first title since 1989-90 and their first of the Premier League era.

The Anfield club have collected an impressive 42 points so far - and if they continue amassing points at the same rate, they will end up with 100 - the record total City amassed in their superb 2017-18 campaign.

This season Guardiola's men are forecast to win 97 points, though there is of course a lot of football still to be played and the teams meet at Etihad Stadium on Thursday, 3 January.

"We definitely have a title race," ex-Arsenal defender Martin Keown said on Match of the Day. "There's just a point in it.

"As well as City have played, Liverpool have jumped a lot of fences, and now City have come unstuck at Chelsea. That game on 3 January will be absolutely huge."

Emery's half-time tinkering

With his side struggling to break down a resolute Huddersfield, Arsenal boss Emery brought on Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Alex Iwobi in place of Stephan Lichtsteiner and Alexandre Lacazette.

While neither of those players directly affected the game with a goal or an assist, the Gunners did eventually win the match.

But Emery's decision to hook Lichtsteiner and Lacazette should not come as too much of a surprise.

They were Emery's 13th and 14th changes made before the start of the second half of a league game so far this season. Only rock-bottom Fulham come close to making that many pre-second-half substitutions.

Number of pre-second half substitutions made by Premier League teams in 2018-19

Team Number of changes

Arsenal 14

Fulham 11

Brighton & Hove Albion, West Ham 7

Newcastle 6

Huddersfield, Wolves 5

Leicester, Liverpool, Manchester United, Tottenham 4

These changes are not the norm for Emery, though. In charge of Paris St-Germain in 2016-17, he made only 11 substitutions before the start of the second half - and in 2017-18 he made just six.

However, the Spaniard's half-time tinkering seems to be working for the Gunners.

Despite the fact they are yet to lead a league game at the halfway stage this term, they have still managed to win 10 of their 16 league games.

Arsenal's record in the Premier League this season

Period P W D L F A GD Points

First half only 16 0 12 4 9 13 -4 12

Second half only 16 13 1 2 26 7 20 40

Error-prone Asmir?

Bournemouth goalkeeper Asmir Begovic was arguably at fault for Liverpool's opener on Saturday, as he spilled Roberto Firmino's shot into the path of Mohamed Salah, who fired home.

That fumble was the ex-Chelsea and Stoke keeper's eighth error to lead directly to a goal since the beginning of last season.

No Premier League player has made more costly errors in the same timeframe.

Player Number of errors leading directly to a goal

Asmir Begovic 8

Petr Cech 6

Hugo Lloris 5

Granit Xhaka, Joe Hart, Jordan Pickford, Cedric Soares 4

Jonas Lossl, Nicolas Otamendi, Steve Cook 3

That statistic is pretty damning for Begovic and, while no goalkeeper has made more Premier League appearances than him (54) since August 2017, his save percentage is down at 63.9%.

In contrast, the other two keepers to have played 54 league games, Mat Ryan and Lukasz Fabianski, both have save percentages upwards of 70%.

The Bosnia-Herzegovina international has also made fewer saves (155) than both those goalkeepers, as well as Jordan Pickford and David de Gea, who have both played a game fewer than him.

Fulham's leaky defence

Claudio Ranieri's Fulham leaked four more goals in the defeat by Manchester United on Saturday, meaning they have now conceded 40 in their 16 league games in 2018-19.

That is eight more than any other side in the Premier League.

In fact, since the 1965-66 season, only Barnsley have conceded more at this stage of a top-flight season - they shipped 43 goals in 16 outings in 1997-98.

Premier League teams who conceded the most goals after 16 games

Season Team Number of goals conceded

1997-98 Barnsley 43

2018-19 Fulham 40

1999-00 Sheffield Wednesday 40

2011-12 Bolton Wanderers 38

2007-08 Derby County 38

2003-04 Leeds United 36

1995-96 Wimbledon, Coventry City 36

2009-10 Wigan Athletic 36

The numbers do not look good for Fulham and there is definitely cause for concern.

In 17 of the 26 Premier League seasons so far, at least one of the teams who had conceded the most goals at this stage of the campaign was eventually relegated.

So if Ranieri and his team are to avoid that fate they need to fix their leaky defence. And fast.

Milner joins Premier League 500 club

James Milner had the honour of making his 500th Premier League appearance on Saturday as a Mohamed Salah hat-trick inspired Liverpool to victory at Bournemouth.

Manager Jurgen Klopp graciously acknowledged Milner's achievement by giving him the captain's armband in Jordan Henderson's absence, although he did deploy the 32-year-old at right-back.

Nonetheless, the former Leeds, Aston Villa and Manchester City man became only the 13th player to register the milestone appearance - can you name them all?

Can you the name the 13 players to make 500 or more appearances in the Premier League?

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Source: bbc.com

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